I will forecast data important to your business planning

Planning for business success depends on accurate forecasts of myriad variables, such as input costs, revenue cycles and inventory demand. A skilled forecaster can apply multiple methods, select and synthesize the most accurate and provide you with a point forecast (the average of all outcomes) along with, if needed, a probabilistic model of potential outcomes and their likelihood. Most importantly, a quality forecast is able to provide an assessment of its own accuracy.

I can help forecast the most important elements of your business success, whether they are simple forecasts, such as understanding the seasonality of sales or forecasts that provide strategic insights into how your decision-making influences costs and revenue or how external forces can change your business outcomes. The most common tools I use are machine learning / AI, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins / ARIMA models, regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. For low-data situations, I apply Oracle models, wargaming-type models, Na-Cl and decomposition methods.